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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to PHI 30, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model