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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model