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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-16-J.Moreno-Cropper.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model