Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(11:56) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to PHI 32, Center-44-T.Sieg. 33-C.DeJean ran ob at DAL 37 for 31 yards (5-B.Anger).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model