Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

(13:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-T.Lance pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 42 for 6 yards (34-I.Rodgers) [98-J.Carter].

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model