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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.68 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP