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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to PHI 21, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model