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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:38) 7-K.Pickett up the middle to DAL 35 for 1 yard (92-C.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP