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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 77

Washington Commanders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PIT 30, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP