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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

PIT
31.5%
WAS
68.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT on 6 more days rest than WAS
  • PIT defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (PIT): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

PIT

Terrell Edmunds S Out Illness
Nick Herbig LB Out Hamstring
Tyler Matakevich LB Questionable Hamstring
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Shoulder

WAS

Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Cornelius Lucas T Out Ankle
Brian Robinson RB Out Hamstring
Colson Yankoff TE Out Hamstring
Tyler Ott LS Questionable Illness
Austin Seibert K Questionable Right Hip
Andrew Wylie T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
WAS 27

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:38 TD PIT (8:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:47 TD WAS (3:47) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – WAS 6
  • Q2 10:31 TD PIT (10:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – WAS 7
  • Q2 08:15 FG WAS (8:15) 47-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. PIT 14 – WAS 10
  • Q2 00:19 TD WAS (:19) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – WAS 16
  • Q3 12:57 TD WAS (12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – WAS 23
  • Q3 08:09 TD PIT (8:09) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – WAS 24
  • Q3 02:55 FG WAS (2:55) 47-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. PIT 21 – WAS 27
  • Q4 02:27 TD PIT (2:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-M.Williams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – WAS 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:55) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-O.Zaccheaus MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 15.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (11:32) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PIT 30, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:50) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 28-M.Killebrew pass incomplete short left to 42-J.Pierre.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:14) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to WAS 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:22) 10-T.Way punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-O.Zaccheaus MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at WAS 14.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (8:15) 47-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 22%

    (5:49) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:26) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PIT 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to PIT 7 for no gain (35-P.Butler).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:51) 8-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 88%

    (2:55) 47-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:13) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Chinn, 20-Q.Martin).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:59) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PIT 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin to WAS 46 for 17 yards (40-T.Owens; 32-M.Walker).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to PIT 42 for 8 yards (23-D.Kazee). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.