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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left tackle to PIT 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Chinn, 20-Q.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model