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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP