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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

SF
50.5%
TB
49.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SF on 8 more days rest than TB
  • TB defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.124 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.172 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
TB 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SF

Chris Conley WR Out Hamstring
Kevin Givens DT Out Groin
Charvarius Ward CB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Achilles
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Jon Feliciano C Questionable Knee
Malik Mustapha S Questionable Calf
Deebo Samuel WR Questionable Rib

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Evan Deckers LS Questionable Hamstring
Greg Gaines DT Questionable Calf
Jalen McMillan WR Questionable Hamstring
Tykee Smith S Questionable Knee
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:25 TD SF (4:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 08:55 FG SF (8:55) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – TB 0
  • Q2 01:17 FG TB (1:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. SF 10 – TB 3
  • Q3 12:03 TD TB (12:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – TB 9
  • Q3 04:25 FG SF (4:25) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – TB 10
  • Q4 14:24 TD TB (14:24) 7-B.Irving right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – TB 16
  • Q4 07:14 TD SF (7:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – TB 17
  • Q4 00:44 FG TB (:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. SF 20 – TB 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG SF (:03) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 23 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 57%

    (12:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to TB 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:15) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to SF 23, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing to SF 29 for 6 yards (81-R.Miller).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to SF 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:55) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 76%

    (:29) 4-J.Moody 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:16) 16-T.Gill punts 48 yards to SF 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:05) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to SF 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-98-A.Nelson at SF 21.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (4:25) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 74%

    (11:54) 4-J.Moody 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:30) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 30 yards (44-S.Tucker, 16-T.Gill).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (3:13) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 45 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.