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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model