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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 4-J.Moody 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP