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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 30 yards (44-S.Tucker, 16-T.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP