Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(1:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 45 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.53 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -2.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model