Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(8:15) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to SF 23, Center-86-E.Deckers. 19-J.Cowing to SF 29 for 6 yards (81-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model