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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to SF 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model