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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model