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HC Brian Callahan
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

TEN
27.0%
LAC
73.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

TEN

L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Quadricep
Julius Chestnut RB Questionable Foot
Dillon Radunz T Questionable Toe

LAC

Kristian Fulton CB Doubtful Hamstring
Khalil Mack DE Questionable Groin
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Ankle
Gus Edwards RB Questionable Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Toe
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Stone Smartt TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
LAC 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 FG LAC (8:10) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. TEN 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 04:32 TD TEN (4:32) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – LAC 3
  • Q2 12:11 FG LAC (12:11) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. TEN 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – LAC 12
  • Q3 07:54 FG TEN (7:54) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 10 – LAC 13
  • Q3 03:30 TD LAC (3:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – LAC 19
  • Q4 07:42 TD LAC (7:42) 62-S.Mustipher reported in as eligible. 28-H.Haskins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – LAC 26
  • Q4 00:54 TD TEN (:54) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 0-C.Ridley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – LAC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (8:10) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:35) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 8 yards (23-T.Avery). PENALTY on LAC-24-A.Finley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 34.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (12:11) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 80%

    (6:24) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:43) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:18) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 48, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (7:54) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (15:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to LAC 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford). PENALTY on LAC-24-A.Finley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 19 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (4:37) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:31) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to TEN 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.