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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to TEN 48, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model