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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP