Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to LAC 4, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford). PENALTY on LAC-24-A.Finley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model