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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.61 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model