Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to LAC 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 34 for 8 yards (23-T.Avery). PENALTY on LAC-24-A.Finley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model