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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 6 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NO 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model