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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CLE
39.4%
NO
60.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than NO
  • Derek Carr (NO): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CLE

Michael Hall DT Out Knee
Jedrick Wills T Out Knee

NO

Lucas Patrick G Out Ankle
Jamaal Williams RB Out Groin
Erik McCoy C Questionable Groin
Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Questionable Hamstring
Nephi Sewell LB Questionable Knee
J.T. Gray S Questionable Hip
Pete Werner LB Questionable Hand
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
NO 35

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 TD NO (10:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 02:07 TD CLE (2:07) 5-J.Winston pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 12:53 TD NO (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NO 13
  • Q3 08:58 TD CLE (8:58) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 8-E.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – NO 14
  • Q4 13:29 TD NO (13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – NO 20
  • Q4 06:08 TD NO (6:08) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – NO 27
  • Q4 02:38 TD NO (2:38) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – NO 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 39%

    (12:33) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CLE 49 for -2 yards (56-D.Davis).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

    (9:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NO 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 51%

    (2:15) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to CLE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:22) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NO 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (6:50) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (13:07) 43-M.Hayball punts 34 yards to CLE 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-E.Moore.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (5:34) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-E.Moore.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to NO 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 17-D.Pettis to NO 23 for 1 yard (37-Da.Bell).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 76%

    (13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 75%

    (3:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at NO 26 for 8 yards (1-A.Taylor).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 19-C.Tillman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NO 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.