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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 49
Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0
What Actually Happened
(12:33) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CLE 49 for -2 yards (56-D.Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+0.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
- 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
KICK
-1.60 EP
- 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
- 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT
-0.85 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.85 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
