4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 43-M.Hayball punts 34 yards to CLE 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-E.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model