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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to NO 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 17-D.Pettis to NO 23 for 1 yard (37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model