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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model