4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 14 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 19-C.Tillman.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP