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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 14 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NO 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model