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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NO 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 17-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model