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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to CLE 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model