4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 44

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on CHI-45-A.Ogbongbemiga, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model