Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to GB: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.155 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.188 EPA/dropback
- GB on 7 more days rest than CHI
- CHI offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- GB offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- GB defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
GB
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:18 TD GB (11:18) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on CHI-96-Z.Pickens, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 6 – CHI 0
- Q1 07:54 FG CHI (7:54) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 7 – CHI 3
- Q2 00:10 TD CHI (:10) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – CHI 9
- Q3 10:21 FG CHI (10:21) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 7 – CHI 13
- Q3 06:38 TD GB (6:38) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CHI 13
- Q3 00:39 TD CHI (:39) 4-D.Swift left end for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – CHI 19
- Q4 03:02 TD GB (3:02) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – CHI 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%
(7:54) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 27%
(5:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to CHI 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-26-C.Ballentine.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 47%
(13:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on CHI-45-A.Ogbongbemiga, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 9.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%
(12:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 23-R.Johnson to GB 15 for 8 yards (33-E.Williams).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(10:21) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 50%
(2:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left tackle to GB 39 for 4 yards (94-K.Brooks).
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(11:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to CHI 1 for 5 yards (53-T.Edwards, 29-T.Stevenson).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 54 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to GB 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed to GB 22 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer; 92-D.Hardy). ** Injury Update: CHI-22-E.Hicks has returned to the game.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 42 for 21 yards (25-K.Nixon).