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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 23

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 23-R.Johnson to GB 15 for 8 yards (33-E.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model