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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to CHI 1 for 5 yards (53-T.Edwards, 29-T.Stevenson).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model