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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 10

Houston Texans 17 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP