4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2024-11-18 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
59.8%
DAL
40.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Cooper Rush (DAL): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 24
–
DAL 20
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

HOU

Will Anderson DE Out Ankle
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Foot
Blake Fisher T Out Concussion
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Quadricep
Kamari Lassiter CB Questionable Concussion

DAL

Daron Bland CB Out Foot
Jourdan Lewis CB Out Neck
Dak Prescott QB Out Hamstring
Hunter Luepke FB Doubtful Calf
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Toe
CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable Back
Zack Martin G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 34
–
DAL 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:50 TD HOU (12:50) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 00:54 TD HOU (:54) 28-J.Mixon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 9-K.Turpin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-23-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. HOU 14 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:13 FG HOU (9:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 17 – DAL 7
  • Q2 06:00 FG DAL (6:00) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. HOU 17 – DAL 10
  • Q3 07:07 FG HOU (7:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 20 – DAL 10
  • Q4 12:44 TD HOU (12:44) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (95-D.Barnett). FUMBLES (95-D.Barnett), recovered by DAL-60-T.Guyton at DAL 33. 60-T.Guyton to DAL 32 for -1 yards (5-J.Pitre; 92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (5-J.Pitre), RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at DAL 28. 95-D.Barnett for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 26 – DAL 10
  • Q4 03:19 TD HOU (3:19) 74-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 33 – DAL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:41) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass short middle to 30-J.Thomas to DAL 37 for 4 yards (8-J.Metchie).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%

    (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hooker at DAL 12. 28-M.Hooker to DAL 33 for 21 yards (70-J.Scruggs).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (1:54) 28-J.Mixon right end pushed ob at DAL 1 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (9:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%

    (6:00) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 34%

    (4:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (1:00) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:45) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to DAL 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:00) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (7:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Mingo. Penalty on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 59 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (11:33) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:12) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 35 for -6 yards (96-D.Autry).