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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Mingo. Penalty on DAL-86-L.Schoonmaker, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model