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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 20 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(14:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 59 yards to DAL 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP