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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 57

Houston Texans 27 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP