Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Houston Texans 27

(6:12) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 35 for -6 yards (96-D.Autry).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.69 EP
75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP