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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to NYJ 29 for 1 yard (56-Qi.Williams, 44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.96 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model