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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

IND
38.3%
NYJ
61.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (IND): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.016 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

IND

Bernhard Raimann T Out Knee
Braden Smith T Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee

NYJ

Jake Hanson G Out Hamstring
C.J. Mosley LB Out Neck
Tyron Smith T Out Neck
Davante Adams WR Questionable Wrist
Solomon Thomas DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 28
–
NYJ 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:11 FG IND (9:11) 7-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 14:16 TD IND (14:16) 5-A.Richardson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 06:12 FG IND (6:12) 7-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 00:48 TD NYJ (:48) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 20-B.Hall for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 13:30 TD NYJ (13:30) 20-B.Hall right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 07:45 FG IND (7:45) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 03:00 FG NYJ (3:00) 18-A.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. IND 16 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 13:08 TD NYJ (13:08) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-K.Yeboah for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 10:16 TD IND (10:16) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 1-J.Downs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 02:44 FG NYJ (2:44) 18-A.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. IND 22 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 00:51 TD IND (:51) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 28 – NYJ 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (9:11) 7-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to IND 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs ran ob at IND 23 for 8 yards (32-I.Davis).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 22 for 7 yards (31-T.Goodson; 16-A.Dulin).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to IND 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs pushed ob at IND 34 for 16 yards (55-C.Surratt).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 83-T.Conklin. 83-T.Conklin up the middle to NYJ 39 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 51-K.Paye).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to NYJ 29 for 1 yard (56-Qi.Williams, 44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs to IND 30 for 13 yards (55-C.Surratt; 42-T.Hennessy).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (7:45) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to IND 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 47.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 58%

    (3:00) 18-A.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 17 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi; 16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (2:44) 18-A.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.