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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP