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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.21 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -1.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP